Source Le Financial Times du 2 avril 2008 et trouvé sur le forum bulle-immobilière.org par incubus
Je vous laisse interpréter comme vous le sentez ces courbes ainsi que leurs futures évolutions. Dommage qu’il n’y ait pas notre cher (trop cher) pays mais c’est normal, chez nous les prix ne baisseront pas…
Bon une transcription du texte (avec des parenthèses là où je n’ai pas réussi à bien entendre) :
Welcome to the show people, I’m john altice
Now we all known that US house prices are coming down
but is there much worse to follow on the other side of the atlantic ?
Take a look at this
this is the s&p case-shiller house prices (…) in the US
you can that after a big expansion that (leads to a peak), that’s been coming down
but now let’s see what happens to house prices in spain
and you can that they’ve risen considerably more even that the US and
that rise continuing unabated
and now most alarmingly let’s show you the UK nation-wide house price index
and you can see a vast expansion in house prices in britain
completely on a different scale from what we’ve seen in the US
and also very alarmingly you see that it seems to have finally peaked and to be moving downward
Now there are reason why you would expect the US and UK house market to move in different directions
The UK obvioulsy is a much smaller market, there’s more construction and supply,
and they’ve been a flux of migrant that might have increased demand
But now let’s take a look at this historical context
What you’re looking at here is the average house price in the UK expressed as a multiple of average earnings
and you can see that peak at 5 time annual earnings
in last big british housing bubble at the end of the 80’s
a quite unsustainable burden on the average household
but this time around it’s peaked at almost 6 times earnings
and it just started to decline
it’s very hard to see how we can avoid a further drastic decline
from here in that (measure)
now the pound is being extremly weak against the euro for a while now,
but against the dollar (… strip out) a lot of fluctuation on the way
it’s basically unchanged from where it was a year ago
If UK house prices follow the path that they seem to have
set for themselve, it’s very hard to see how we can avoid a big
fall for the pound against the dollar