Cette demi-séance du 24 décembre, qui a vu sans surprise le volume de capitaux échangés fondre avec l’absence de nombreux opérateurs, doit être elle considérée comme une séance à part entière ?
A priori non. Mais sur notre graphique et dans l’esprit de tous les investisseurs, même ceux qui n’étaient pas présents ce lundi, la petite baisse enregistrée est bien réelle, et se traduit sur les comptes de chacun de la même façon que n’importe quelle autre séance.
Alors bien sûr, dès la reprise ce jeudi, ce repli pourra au choix être confirmé ou infirmé, selon la perception des absents de ce lundi. Mais la plupart des investisseurs étant plus suiveurs qu’acteurs, il est tout à fait possible que ce petit repli soit acté et que les intervenants en tiennent compte comme si une séance normale s’était déroulée lundi.
Dans ces conditions, et compte de la clôture à proximité de la base de notre petit canal bleu clair (il sera sur 3653 ce jeudi), il faudra se méfier du risque de cassure de ce dernier dès l’ouverture. Une ouverture qui sera donc très intéressante à surveiller, pour savoir si les intervenants présents invaliderons d’emblée le repli de lundi, ou si au contraire ils en prendront acte.
En cas d’ouverture haussière (et donc à l’intérieur du canal bleu clair), le biais restera donc globalement positif, même si ce n’est réellement qu’en cas de retour au dessus des 3670/3675 qu’on pourra considérer la hausse comme relancée et le risque de cassure du canal bleu clair écarté à court terme. Le CAC devrait alors être en mesure de se relancer, pour aller viser les 3690 avant le seuil psychologique des 3700. Le haut du canal bleu clair sera lui déjà sur les 3720.
En cas d’ouverture sous les 3653 par contre, il faudra se méfier du risque de consolidation, cette dernière pouvant être soit horizontale, soutenue par les 3645/3650 ou les 3635/3640, soit un peu plus baissière, notamment en cas de cassure du point bas de vendredi dernier. Alors le CAC devrait entamer une phase de repli en direction de la MM20, qui se situera jeudi autour des 3610/3615, soit au niveau des plus bas du 17 décembre. Entre deux, on pourra mentionner les 3630 et les 3622 comme supports potentiels.
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