La construction à la peine en 2018, quand le bâtiment ne va plus …

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Quand le bâtiment va, tout va, affirme l’adage. Certes, mais qu’en est-il si le secteur de la construction est à la peine ? Une situation à laquelle est confrontée la France désormais … L’assureur Euler Hermes vient ainsi d’indiquer dans une note publiée mardi, que l’activité dans le secteur de la construction devrait se replier cette année dans l’Hexagone.


Selon les résultats de son étude, les mises en chantier devraient ainsi régresser de 3% en 2018, après avoir progressé de 17,5% en 2017.

Plusieurs raisons invoquées par l’assureur pour expliquer ce phénomène.

Baisse de l’investissement  des ménages

En tout premier lieu, Euler Hermes pointe du doigt la baisse de l’investissement des ménages dans la construction résidentielle. Pour ne pas dire plus, car selon lui, la situation actuelle va encore plus loin qu’une régression, puisque que l’assureur évoque ni plus ni moins qu’un arrêt de ce type d’investissements au premier semestre 2018.

Euler Hermes explique ce phénomène de baisse de la demande des ménages par l’émergence de contraintes financières liées à l’impact de l’inflation sur leur pouvoir d’achat.

Nombre accru de défaillances d’entreprises dans le secteur

Effet domino : ce contexte clientèle est à l’origine de la croissance du nombre de défaillances dans le secteur. Ces derniers ont augmenté de +0,5% au 2e trimestre par rapport à la même période de 2017. chose qui ne s’était plus vue depuis près de trois ans.

Parmi les structures les plus impactées par un tel phénomène figurent en tout premier lieu les entreprises dont le chiffre d’affaires est compris entre cinq et quinze millions d’euros : dans cette catégorie, les défaillances ont progressé de 27% à fin juin.

Hausse des coûts

Autre phénomène à prendre en compte selon Euler Hermes : il estime que le secteur de la construction est « coincé entre baisse de la demande et hausse des coûts. » Deux freins majeurs …. On ne pouvait pas « rêver » pire situation, la baisse de la demande pouvant les inciter à baisser les prix pour attirer le chaland … alors même que les coûts augmentent … de quoi plomber fortement la rentabilité … voire même l’entreprise.

Symptômes de surchauffe

L’assureur estime même que le secteur doit faire face à « des problématiques de demande » qui – selon lui – présente « tous les symptômes d’une surchauffe ». Y observant parallèlement des « capacités de production quasi saturées »  et des « difficultés de recrutement ».

Le secteur est en effet confronté à une accélération des coûts, et tout particulièrement des charges salariales. Les salaires ont progressé de +2% en valeur glissante annuelle au 2e trimestre 2018, la hausse affichant une croissance plus rapide que dans les autres secteurs (+1,5%).

Prise de risques accrue

Autre phénomène pour le moins inquiétant : selon l’assureur, la reprise enregistrée ces deux dernières années par le secteur l’a incité à prendre davantage de risques … compliquant, voire fragilisant sa situation aujourd’hui.

Le délai de paiement moyen octroyé par les entreprises du secteur à leurs clients a ainsi progressé de sept jours en 2017 …. pour atteindre désormais 75 jours !

Si l’allongement des délais de paiement observé en 2017 n’a que peu affecté la trésorerie des entreprises, ces dernières profitant en parallèle d’une demande très forte pour réduire leurs stocks de moitié, tel n’est plus la cas désormais.

Avec le ralentissement de la demande enregistrée à l’heure actuelle, les entreprises du secteur se retrouvent fragilisées, tandis que leur trésorerie se trouve désormais sous pression.

Sources : Reuters, Euler Hermes

Elisabeth Studer – 11 septembre 2018 – www.leblogfinance.com

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(83 commentaires)

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