Les cours du café ne semblent pas vouloir s’arrêter de chuter à l’heure actuelle, plombés par une offre pléthorique, le Brésil enregistrant des niveaux records de production, tout comme pour le sucre.
Mardi, le prix de l’arabica aura ainsi chuté à New-York jusqu’à 126,45 cents la livre, son plus bas niveau depuis septembre 2009.
Pas d’inversement de tendance à prévoir selon les analystes, les volumes très importants en provenance du brésil ainsi que la perspective de l’accroissement des excédents sur le marché international du café en 2013/2014 pesant sur les prix.
A noter également l’influence des opérations spéculatives, certains investisseurs continuant à pousser les prix vers les bas, misant sur une offre de plus en plus abondante.
Si 2013 est considérée comme une année « creuse » du cycle biennal de culture caféière alternant années fastes et années maigres, selon les estimations officielles, le Brésil devrait toutefois enregistrer une récolte de 48,6 millions de sacs durant la période.
Soit un niveau légèrement inférieur à celui enregistré en 2012 – lequel se chiffrait à 50,8 millions – , année particulièrement faste en ce domaine.
Même la maladie de la rouille qui frappe actuellement les exploitations d’Amérique centrale ne semble pas permettre de changer la donne.
Au final, sur le Liffe de Londres, la tonne de robusta pour livraison en juillet valait 1892 dollars à la pause méridienne vendredi, et 1848 dollars en cloture, contre 1978 dollars en fin de semaine dernière.
Parallèlement, sur le NYBoT-ICE à New York, la livre d’arabica pour livraison en juillet est descendu vendredi jusqu’à 125,05 cents, pour cloturer à 127,05 cents contre 130,40 cents vendredi dernier.
Sources : AFP, Liffe, Nybot, Reuters, Trading.charts
Elisabeth Studer – www.leblogfinance.com – 31 mai 2013
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