Je m’interrogeais dans mon analyse de clôture de lundi sur le fait de savoir dans quelle mesure il fallait tenir compte du repli enregistré lors de la demi-séance de ce début de semaine.
Je ne sais pas si le marché nous a apporté la réponse aujourd’hui, car les volumes sont restés également particulièrement faibles. On pourrait donc tout aussi bien remettre en doute le rebond de ce jeudi. Toujours est-il que le seuil des 3653, correspondant au bas du canal haussier bleu clair, a parfaitement tenu son rôle de « point pivot » entre tendance haussière et consolidation.
Le CAC a d’ailleurs ouvert pile poil sur ce support, avant d’accélérer rapidement à la hausse, confirmant la tendance haussière au sein du petit canal bleu. Les plus hauts annuels ont même été franchis, et sauf net retournement du marché d’ici lundi, nous pourrons une nouvelle fois valider la statistique concernant les rallyes de fin d’année sur le CAC, évoquée fin novembre.
Pour en revenir à la séance de demain, l’un des niveaux clés à surveiller restera ce canal haussier bleu clair, dont la base sera sur les 3660 pts. Tant que le CAC 40 restera au dessus, le biais restera haussier, même s’il faudra rester méfiant face au risque de retournement.
Depuis plusieurs semaines, le CAC a en effet non seulement tendance à surperformer Wall Street, mais il monte depuis plusieurs jours même lors des phases de repli à New York. Peut être qu’une reprise outre-manche pourrait provoquer un mouvement inverse ? A quelques jours seulement de la fin de l’année, qui pourrait voir la mascarade du fiscal cliff trouver comme par miracle une solution, et faire remonter Wall Street, il n’est pas exclu d’assister à des prises de bénéfices à Paris. A moins que les investisseurs ne vendent la nouvelle du fiscal cliff ? Le résultat serait alors même, à savoir une rechute des marchés… Dernière option, même si elle semble peu probable : un échec dans les négociations, ce qui se traduirait pour le coup sans doute par un réel repli. Dans un cas comme dans l’autre, un repli est probable dans les prochains jours…
A moins que le retour des investisseurs américains en Europe soit plus fort que tout…, ce qui reste malgré tout une option tout à fait plausible. Attention donc à ne pas non plus avoir des idées trop arrêtées sur l’évolution des prochains jours, en restant prêts à retourner votre veste…
Pour en revenir à demain, les prochains objectifs à la hausse resteront les 3690, avant les 3700/3705, le haut du canal bleu clair se situant peut être un peu haut, sur 3725/3730.
A la baisse, une rupture des 3660 renverrait le CAC sur des supports de 10 en 10, avec les 3650, les 3640, les 3630, avant la MM20 sur les 3620. Tout un programme!
A lire également :
Analyse CAC 24/12/12
Analyse Dow 18/12/12
Analyse Nasdaq 18/12/12
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