Comment faire monter le prix des matières premières quand on s’appelle Goldman Sachs, qu’on est candidat à la reprise du London Metal Exchange, premier marché mondial de cotation de métaux … et qu’on n’est pas à un « arrangement » prêt … ?
Annoncer une flambée des prix des matières premières pour les prochains mois …
Goldman Sachs affirme ainsi à qui veut l’entendre … et même aux autres … que les cours pourraient s’envoler de 20 % l’an prochain.
Ce qui représenterait d’autant plus une « aubaine » pour les investisseurs , qu’à la fin septembre les cours des principales commodities ont observé une chute de -10 % en moyenne, chose qui ne s’était pas vue depuis 2008.
Selon l’établissement financier, cette baisse des prix pourrait inciter la Chine, plus important consommateur mondial de métaux , à revenir sur les marchés en vue de reconstituer des stocks « à moindre frais ».
Un phénomène qui – le cas échéant – pourrait créer une dynamique haussière à moyen terme.
Pour étayer ses propos, Goldman Sachs estime par ailleurs que la croissance économique dans les pays émergents devrait stimuler la demande pour des métaux comme le cuivre et le zinc en 2012.
Si à l’heure actuelle, ces pays sont sérieusement impactés par le ralentissement mondial, cette situation ne serait que temporaire si l’on en croit la banque. La reprise attendue en Chine (mais n’est-elle pas compromise ?) et dans plusieurs autres pays en développement devrait – selon Goldman Sachs – compenser amplement la crise des dettes souveraines en Europe et le ralentissement observé dans les pays développés.
On ne demande qu’à voir et qu’à croire …
L’analyste commodities de Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Currie, recommande ainsi aux investisseurs exposés à ces marches de « composer temporairement » avec des prix en baisse.
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