La Bourse américaine marque un temps d’arret aujourd’hui avec des clotures pratiquement inchangées après la furie acheteuse d’hier partie d’une rumeur mardi, puis d’une déclaration d’un certain Mr. Kohn qui laissait penser que « la FED allait baisser les taux le 11 decembre » … Alleluia! Il y a toute une ribambelle de gens pour écrire des pages entières sur le rally de fin d’année, et comme j’aime bien embéter les défenseurs des consensus superficiels, je vais vous donner une série de raisons pour lesquelles cet évennement pourrait bien etre une jolie occasion de shorter les marchés afin de vous payer cash le TV plasma made in China que vos voisins paient à crédit sans frais …
Et donc, des raisons qu’ont les marchés de glisser plein sud, il y en a tout plein:
- La situation américaine n’est pas plus brillante que lundi dernier: Citigroup a meme requis l’augmentation de capital la plus chère de son histoire. Des obligations convertibles assorties d’un coupon de 11% … Et un livret A, ca fait combien ?
- L’analyse graphique du Dow Jones montre qu’il bute sur le haut de la fourchette d’Andrews, et que les volumes ne sont pas au rendez-vous aujourd’hui. D’autre part, il fallait vraiment etre un ane pour imaginer que l’indice allait passer à travers les niveaux du rebond d’aout dernier comme ca sans moufter.
- Coté Nasdaq, on atteint des valorisations qui font rire. Graphiquement, le Nasdaq 100 pourrait bien construire un canal descendant (voir mon post précédent sur cet indice).
- Les vieux briscards connaissent par coeur le vieux truc: « acheter la rumeur et vendre la nouvelle ». Il n’est pas impossible que la vente commence meme dès le milieu de la semaine prochaine.
- La révision à la hausse du PIB US au 3ème trimestre; vous pensez qu’on va baisser les taux avec ca ? Si la FED le voulait vraiment, ils se seraient débrouillé pour nous servir une statistique en-dessous des attentes, pas en hausse révisée de 1%.
Voila, un autre indice à tenir à l’oeil est le DAX d’outre-Rhin: il semble construire une jolie structure de retournement plein sud. Et ca tombe bien, nos amis de la Commerzbank ont justement mis à notre disposition un Turbo Short tout à fait adapté …
A vos logiciels d’analyse graphique et bons trades à tous!
Hãy để ý đến phong cách chung của căn phòng.
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