Les cours du maïs et du soja ont de nouveau reculé cette semaine à Chicago, alors que les investisseurs s’attendent à des récoltes abondantes. Les spécialistes tels que ceux de Doane Advisory Services affirment même qu’il s’agit de « la meilleure récolte jamais vue ». Comme quoi le bonheur des uns peut faire le malheur des autres …
Les analystes prévoient ainsi une production dépassant « largement » les précédents records, tant pour le maïs que pour le soja.
Les conditions météorologiques favorables depuis le printemps ont en effet dopé le développement des plants de maïs.
En ce qui concerne le soja, le mois le plus déterminant est août. Or les prévisions météorologiques tablent sur des précipitations la semaine prochaine dans certaines parties du Midwest déterminantes pour la production. Le cas échéant, la situation deviendrait alors idéale pour le soja.
Face à ce contexte de moissons au volume pléthorique inégalé, les cours ont donc enchaîné une tendance baissière.
Si un léger rebond a pu être observé lundi après l’annonce de la vente de 486 000 tonnes de soja à la Chine, la hausse n’aura été que de courte durée, la météo demeurant favorable.
Au final, le boisseau de maïs pour livraison en décembre 2014 s’échangeait vendredi à la mi-séance à 3,6650 dollars contre 3,7175 dollars à la clôture vendredi dernier.
Parallèlement, le boisseau de soja pour livraison en novembre, s’établissait quant à lui à 10,6300 dollars contre 10,8350 dollars vendredi dernier.
Elisabeth Studer – www.leblogfinance.com – 03 août 2014
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