A la suite d’un commentaire, je suis allé poster quelque chose sur le blog d’un spécialiste des indices de volatilité du genre VIX. En particulier, j’ai essayé de faire une petite synthèse des indications fournies par le VIX, le ratio put/call et le ratio nova/ursa (Rydex), tels qu’examinés par (entre autres) Tropical Bear dans son blog. La situation de la répartition des fonds nova et ursa chez Rydex (voir ci-contre, en rouge) laisse l’impression d’un excès bullish durant la trève des confiseurs bien plus important qu’un simple examen des indicateurs genre RSI sur les indices boursiers ne l’aurait suggéré. « Rather than just measuring someone’s opinion about market direction, this ratio shows where people actually are putting their money« : le fonds nova est bull sur le S&P 500 avec un levier de 1.5 alors que ursa est simplement 100% bear. Couplé avec le retournement du VIX en fin de séance vendredi, cela pourrait signifier la fin proche de cette hausse sans volumes …
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