La myopie des analystes et du marché est pour moi un sujet de consternation.
Ce matin, l’action de Dassault Systèmes a ouvert en hausse de plus de 5%. Pourquoi ? Les ventes du premier trimestre ont été meilleures qu’attendu par le marché, et le groupe a revu à la hausse ses prévisions annuelles de croissance du chiffre d’affaires : 12 à 14% à la place de 11 à 12%.
Dassault Systèmes est l’éditeur français de logiciels le plus suivi au monde par les analystes – ils sont plusieurs dizaines à anticiper ses tendances. Certains d’entre eux concentrent leur temps de travail sur quelques valeurs au point de les connaître comme leur poche…
Le consensus sur Dassault Systemes est actuellement plutôt négatif. D’où la réaction brutale à la hausse de ce matin.
Ceci est un principe contrarien archi classique : Comme souvent, le marché et ses veilleurs de nuit ne voient presque rien arriver. Un consensus trop longtemps négatif ou positif donne alors un signal d’achat ou de vente. La moindre nouvelle contrarienne fait décaler les cours.
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