Les prix du café n’auront que peu fluctué cette semaine, progressant toutefois selon une tendance haussière alors que les investisseurs demeurent inquiets face à l’éventualité d’une pénurie de production. Lundi, le robusta aura ainsi atteint son plus haut niveau depuis un mois, s’échangeant à 2.112 dollars la tonne.
Les marchés ont ainsi réagi à l’annonce de Volcafe lequel a réévalué son estimation de déficit sur le marché du café en 2014/15, de 9 millions de sacs à 10 millions de sacs. Le courtier spécialisé dans le café a en effet anticipé le faible niveau de récolte du Vietnam alors que le pays constitue le deuxième producteur et exportateur mondial de café, et produit principalement du robusta.
Autres éléments notables : les analystes prévoient d’ores et déjà que la sécheresse observée provoque des déficits d’offre non seulement pour l’arabica, mais aussi sur le marché du robusta.
Rappelons que le territoire brésilien, premier producteur et exportateur mondial de café (principalement d’arabica), a connu au premier trimestre de cette année une sécheresse historique, cette dernière frappant notamment les cultures caféières au moment crucial du développement des fruits.
Si l’Organisation internationale du café (ICO) prévoit également un déficit d’offre sur le marché du café en 2014/15, elle table toutefois sur un delta entre offre et demande de 800.000 sacs, soit une différence bien moindre que celle anticipée par Volcafe.
Au final, vendredi à Londres, la tonne de robusta pour livraison en janvier valait 2.100 dollars à la cloture, après être tombé même à 2094 dollars dans la journée. Rappelons qu’en fin de semaine dernière, elle s’échangeait à 2.070 dollars. Parallèlement, à New York, la livre d’arabica pour livraison en mars valait quant à elle 192,80 cents, contre 188,85 cents le vendredi précédent.
Elisabeth Studer – www.leblogfinance.com – 30 novembre 2014
Sources : AFP, Liffe, Volcafe, Commerzbank
A lire également :
. Côte d’ivoire : partenariat historique avec Nestlé pour booster la production de café
. Les cours du café plombés par les récoltes de Colombie … dans l’attente de la production du Brésil
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