Après son envolée de la veille, et malgré une clôture au plus haut, synonyme le plus souvent de poursuite haussière, la bourse de Paris a repris son souffle aujourd’hui, consolidant tout au long de la séance sur la zone de support des 3710/3715.
D’un point de vue graphique, et malgré un bref enfoncement des 3710 (j’avais mentionné les risques de fausse sortie dans mon analyse de mi-séance), le fait que cette zone ait tenu est un facteur positif. Le CAC 40 reste donc dans une tendance haussière, et pourrait poursuivre sa hausse le long de la Bollinger supérieure et au sein du canal bleu clair.
La configuration reste néanmoins inconfortable après le mouvement haussier enregistré depuis la mi-novembre et le gros gap ouvert hier matin. La bourse de Paris reste donc vulnérable, d’autant que les volumes restent relativement faibles. C’est d’ailleurs ce qui rend ce mouvement si délicat, les faibles volumes incitant à une certaine méfiance en même tant qu’ils laissent entrevoir encore un potentiel haussier significatif. Bon nombre d’investisseurs sont en effet sur le bord de la touche ou à contre-courant, et commencent à trouver le temps long, alimentant en conséquence le mouvement au fur et à mesure qu’ils se résignent à prendre le train en marche.
Pour en revenir à la situation actuelle et les projections pour demain, la tendance voudrait que le marché poursuive son mouvement haussier demain après la pause du jour. Un mouvement qui serait relancé par le franchissement des 3730/3735, et permettrait d’aller tester une zone horizontale toute proche vers 3740/3745, tandis que le haut du canal bleu clair sera demain sur 3760.
Mais le harami baissier formé aujourd’hui pourrait très bien servir de prétexte à une poursuite de la consolidation horizontale initiée aujourd’hui, voire même à un retour sur le gap haussier ouvert hier. Un retour sous les 3710 pourrait donc préfigurer d’un test des 3690/3695, puis pourquoi pas des 3680/3685. Il restera quoiqu’il en soit encore en dessous le bas du gap et la MM20 pour soutenir le marché en cas de faiblesse, sans parler de la base du canal bleu clair.
Bref, pas de conviction forte pour demain, si ce n’est qu’il existe aussi bien un certain potentiel haussier comme baissier. Méfiance donc dans vos expositions.
A lire également :
Analyse CAC 02/01/13
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