Il y a quelques temps, j’avais présenté des extrapolations sur le Nasdaq 100 en traitement du signal; jetons donc brièvement un coup d’oeil sur l’évolution globale de cet indice au moyen de la décomposition en vagues d’Elliott. Ci-contre, un graphique en unité de temps hebdomadaire représentant la phase baissière du NDX depuis fin 2007. Nous sommes bien évidemment dans la phase 5, ce qui se traduit entre autres par un pessimisme dominant très fort (tous les analystes sont désormais bear), celle-ci venant après une phase 3 très forte qui a fait dégringoler l’indice de 1000 points environ. Donc, pour ce qui est du futur, 2 possibilités: soit la vague 5 échoue, et on a une consolidation horizontale (ceci est possible car l’onde 3 est tellement forte qu’il reste bien peu pour la 5), soit la vague 5 fonctionne correctement (c’est ce qu’anticipe le traitement du signal), et on ira sous les 1000 points après un rebond technique (qui a démarré aujourd’hui).
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