Ce n’est pas que Wall Street a fortement baissé hier. Non, le Nasdaq a même réussi a gagné près d’un demi pour-cent.
Mais je note deux points saillants plutôt contrariants pour les actions : le baril de « light sweet crude » a touché des records, pointant à 62 dollars. Bon, supposons que ce soit éphémère et dû à l’annonce de la mort du roi Fahd d’Arabie Saoudite. Reste tout de même les questions iraniennes (recherches nucléaires), indirectement liées au prix du pétrole.
Surtout, les taux d’intérêt à long terme aux Etats-Unis (T-Bonds 10 et 30 ans) ont atteint un point haut pas vu depuis avril à 4,34 % et 4,51%. Je rappelle que selon le modèle simplissime (mais très utile) de la Fed le multiple de capitalisation des bénéfices tend, à l’équilibre, vers l’inverse du rendement de l’obligation d’Etat de référence. Bref, plus les taux longs montent, plus les actions paraissent chères (toutes choses égales par ailleurs, selon la formule consacrée).
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