Cap Gemini en vue Hebdomadaire de fin 2000 à fin 2001.
Les avalements sont formés par 2 bougies. Ils signalent généralement un retournement des cours dans le sens inverse; ces signaux sont d’autant plus fort s’il se font dans le sens de la tendance en cours et à proximité de la Moyenne Mobile 20.
N.B : c’est la pente de la MM20 qui permet de déterminer le sens de la tendance en cours.
Pour un avalement baissier, la première bougie doit avoir un corps blanc ( vert) – voir article sur les chandeliers japonais – . La seconde bougie doit avoir un corps noir ( rouge) qui englobe complétement le corps de la première bougie.
C’est l’inverse pour l’avalement haussier.
Dans le cas présenté, alors que Cap Gemini avait connu une belle semaine de hausse (1ère bougie), il commença la semaine plus haut encore pour ne cesser de descendre et descendre plus bas, au final, que la semaine précédente ( 2ème bougie).
La probabilité d’un retour des cours sur des plus bas était maximal, puisque l’avalement s’est effectué à proximité de la MM20 orientée à la baisse.
L’avalement baissier sera invalidé si les cours clôturent au-dessus du niveau d’ouverture de la deuxième bougie.
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